Punt A.E., A'Mar T., Bond N.A., Butterworth D.S., De Moor C.L., De Oliveira J.A.A., Haltuch M.A., Hollowed A.B., Szuwalski C.
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group (MARAM), Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa; CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, United Kingdom; Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA, United States
Punt, A.E., School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS, Australia; A'Mar, T., Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, United States; Bond, N.A., Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Butterworth, D.S., Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group (MARAM), Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa; De Moor, C.L., Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group (MARAM), Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa; De Oliveira, J.A.A., CEFAS Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, Suffolk, United Kingdom; Haltuch, M.A., Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA, United States; Hollowed, A.B., Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, United States; Szuwalski, C., School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
The ability of management strategies to achieve the fishery management goals are impacted by environmental variation and, therefore, also by global climate change. Management strategies can be modified to use environmental data using the "dynamic B0" concept, and changing the set of years used to define biomass reference points. Two approaches have been developed to apply management strategy evaluation to evaluate the impact of environmental variation on the performance of management strategies. The "mechanistic approach" estimates the relationship between the environment and elements of the population dynamics of the fished species and makes predictions for population trends using the outputs from global climate models. In contrast, the "empirical approach" examines possible broad scenarios without explicitly identifying mechanisms. Many reviewed studies have found that modifying management strategies to include environmental factors does not improve the ability to achieve management goals much, if at all, and only if the manner in which these factors drive the system is well known. As such, until the skill of stock projection models improves, it seems more appropriate to consider the implications of plausible broad forecasts related to how biological parameters may change in the future as a way to assess the robustness of management strategies, rather than attempting specific predictions per se. © 2014 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. All rights reserved.
