Sloth Madsen M., Maule C.F., MacKellar N., Olesen J.E., Christensen J.H.
Food Additives and Contaminants - Part A Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment
Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Agroecology, University of Aarhus, PO Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark; African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa
Sloth Madsen, M., Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; Maule, C.F., Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; MacKellar, N., Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark, African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, South Africa; Olesen, J.E., Department of Agroecology, University of Aarhus, PO Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark; Christensen, J.H., Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Climate change projections; Climate change scenarios; Climate data; Climate projection; Crop phenology; Impact analysis; Impact model; Local scale; Method validations; Model uncertainties; mycotoxins; Weather generator; Atmospheric humidity; Biology; Climate models; Crops; Isomers; Phenols; Precipitation (chemical); Temperature; Uncertainty analysis; Climate change; mycotoxin; article; climate change; climate model; crop; environmental impact; environmental temperature; generator; humidity; nonbiological model; phenology; precipitation; priority journal; weather; Agriculture; Animals; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural; Databases, Factual; Europe; Food Safety; Forecasting; Fungi; Humans; Models, Biological; Mycotoxins; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Uncertainty; Weather
