Weill Medical College, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States; CAPRISA, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durbana, South Africa; Division of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Weill Medical College, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Cornell University, 525 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10021, United States
Amirfar, S., Weill Medical College, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States, Weill Medical College, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Cornell University, 525 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10021, United States; Hollenberg, J.P., Weill Medical College, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States; Abdool Karim, S.S., Weill Medical College, Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Cornell University, New York, NY, United States, CAPRISA, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durbana, South Africa, Division of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential impact over 10 years of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a cohort of 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa in terms of HIV infections and deaths prevented in mothers and infants. METHODS: A computer simulation was constructed using a population of all 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa followed for 10 years. A partially effective vaccine is introduced into this population with the ability to reduce the HIV incidence rates of the adolescents and vertical transmission to their infants through birth and breast-feeding. At the end of this 10 year period, the number of HIV infections and death prevented in adolescents and infants is analyzed. RESULTS: Using a 5% HIV incidence rate, a 50% effective vaccine decreases the number of HIV cases among adolescents by 57,653 (28.7%) and the number of cases among infants by 13,765 (28.9%) over 10 years. In addition, assuming a vaccine cost of $20 per dose, the vaccination program can save approximately $120 million for the South African government over 10 years. CONCLUSION: A partially effective HIV vaccine has an important role in HIV prevention in adolescents and infants in South Africa irrespective of other public policy implementations. Copyright © 2006 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Human immunodeficiency virus vaccine; adolescence; article; breast feeding; cohort analysis; computer simulation; drug cost; drug efficacy; Human immunodeficiency virus; Human immunodeficiency virus infection; incidence; policy; priority journal; South Africa; vaccination; vertical transmission; Adolescent; AIDS Vaccines; Cohort Studies; Computer Simulation; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Decision Support Techniques; Disease Transmission, Vertical; Female; HIV Infections; HIV-1; Humans; Immunization Programs; Incidence; Infant; Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; South Africa