State Key Lab. of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 190, Kakamega 50100, Kenya
Shu, L.C., State Key Lab. of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Liu, P.G., State Key Lab. of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Ongor, B.T.I., State Key Lab. of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China, Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 190, Kakamega 50100, Kenya
In this paper, fist-order reliability method (FORM) is used to evaluate the impacts of uncertainties posed by traditional deterministic models on the environment in Jining, China. Because of groundwater contamination in shallow aquifer, and an increase in water demand, the new wells target the confined aquifer with constant pumping rate of 5,000 m 3/d. Using Theis equation, the groundwater drawdown is analyzed to determine whether the confined aquifer will be contaminated. Although the piezometric level is higher than the phreatic level by 11.0 m, the risk of drawdown is still 19.49% when the pumping rate of 5,000 m 3/d is maintained for 2 years. The deterministic model indicates a drawdown of 8.94 m which is lower than the maximum tolerance drawdown of 11.0 m. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveal that the model result is more sensitive to transmissivity than specific yield, while the reliability analysis offers significant information for the decision makers. This approach exposes and minimizes the risk of undesirable consequences such as groundwater contamination. © 2007 Springer-Verlag.
Environmental impact; Environmental impact assessments; Groundwater; Groundwater resources; Hydrogeology; Offshore oil well production; Underground reservoirs; Case studies; Confined aquifers; Deterministic modeling; Ground water systems; Groundwater contamination; Impact Assessment (IA); Pumping rates; Reliability methods; Shallow aquifers; Water demands; Groundwater pollution; aquifer pollution; confined aquifer; environmental impact assessment; hydrological modeling; piezometer; reliability analysis; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; water demand; Asia; China; Eurasia; Far East; Jining; Shandong