The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on the South African Manufacturing Sector
Journal of Development Studies
Southern African Labour and Development Research Unit, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom
Abstract: This article uses a Chenery-type decomposition and econometric estimation to evaluate the impact of Chinese trade on production and employment in South African manufacturing from 1992 to 2010. The results suggest that increased import penetration from China caused South African manufacturing output to be 5 per cent lower in 2010 than it otherwise would have been. The estimated reduction of total employment in manufacturing as a result of trade with China is larger – in 2010 about 8 per cent – because the declines in output were concentrated on labour-intensive industries and because the increase in imports raised labour productivity within industries. © 2015 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.
employment; import; international trade; labor productivity; manufacturing; trade relations; China; South Africa
ES/1035125/1, ESRC, Economic and Social Research Council