Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO-Box 601203, Potsdam, D-14412, Germany; Aix Marseille University, Mediterranean Institute of marine and terrestrial Biodiversity and Ecology (IMBE), UMR CNRS/IRD - BP 80, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 04, F-13545, France; International Livestock Research Institute, P.O. Box 30709, Kenya
Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
adaptive management; climate change; climate effect; development strategy; environmental impact assessment; food security; future prospect; poverty alleviation; strategic approach; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa south of the Sahara; climate change; crop; environment; hydrology; theoretical model; uncertainty; Africa South of the Sahara; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural; Environment; Hydrology; Models, Theoretical; Uncertainty