Kirsten H.A.D., Heath G.J., Venter I.S., Trollip N.Y.G., Oosthuizen A.C.
PO Box 17, Fontainebleau, 2032, France; Private Bag X112, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; PO Box 36114, Menlo Park, 0102, United States; PO Box 604, Fourways, 2055, South Africa
Kirsten, H.A.D., PO Box 17, Fontainebleau, 2032, France; Heath, G.J., Private Bag X112, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa; Venter, I.S., PO Box 36114, Menlo Park, 0102, United States; Trollip, N.Y.G., PO Box 604, Fourways, 2055, South Africa; Oosthuizen, A.C., Private Bag X112, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
In refining the principles supporting the safe and judicious use of land, the Council for Geoscience (CGS) is researching the use of a risk-based evaluation of the influence of development density on personal safety. This paper considers single-storey dwelling houses and is the first in a series that will also consider multi-storey and mixed-use developments. In much the same way that rainfall statistics are used to calculate flood events in order to control development by restricting it to above a fixed return period flood line, is it proposed to expand and apply the frequencies of sinkhole occurrence in order to arrive at a more rigorous expression of acceptable development densities for the eight "Inherent Risk Classes". A number of probability concepts are used in determining the development density. Depending on the incidence of each probability, it has been possible to determine the risk associated with development on dolomite for a single-storey dwelling. Recommended population densities are proposed for each Inherent Risk Class, with the exceptions of Risk Classes 6, 7 and 8, where no residential development is catered for, in line with industry standards.
Coincidence; Development density; Flood event; Geosciences; In-line; Industry standards; Inherent risk; Personal safety; Population densities; Probability concepts; Rainfall statistics; Residential development; Residential house; Return periods; Risk class; Risk-based evaluation; Apartment houses; Buildings; Land use; Rain; Regional planning; Standardization; Risks