Schaefer K., Lantuit H., Romanovsky V.E., Schuur E.A.G., Witt R.
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43 Potsdam, Germany; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen, Russian Federation; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Division of Early Warning and Assessment, United Nations Environmental Programme, PO Box 30552-00100, Nairobi, Kenya; University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Schaefer, K., National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Lantuit, H., Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43 Potsdam, Germany, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Romanovsky, V.E., Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen, Russian Federation; Schuur, E.A.G., Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Witt, R., Division of Early Warning and Assessment, United Nations Environmental Programme, PO Box 30552-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
Degrading permafrost can alter ecosystems, damage infrastructure, and release enough carbon dioxide (CO<inf>2</inf>) and methane (CH<inf>4</inf>) to influence global climate. The permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is the amplification of surface warming due to CO<inf>2</inf> and CH<inf>4</inf> emissions from thawing permafrost. An analysis of available estimates PCF strength and timing indicate 120α85 Gt of carbon emissions from thawing permafrost by 2100. This is equivalent to 5.7α4.0% of total anthropogenic emissions for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and would increase global temperatures by 0.29α0.21 °C or 7.8α5.7%. For RCP4.5, the scenario closest to the 2 °C warming target for the climate change treaty, the range of cumulative emissions in 2100 from thawing permafrost decreases to between 27 and 100 Gt C with temperature increases between 0.05 and 0.15 °C, but the relative fraction of permafrost to total emissions increases to between 3% and 11%. Any substantial warming results in a committed, long-term carbon release from thawing permafrost with 60% of emissions occurring after 2100, indicating that not accounting for permafrost emissions risks overshooting the 2 °C warming target. Climate projections in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and any emissions targets based on those projections, do not adequately account for emissions from thawing permafrost and the effects of the PCF on global climate. We recommend the IPCC commission a special assessment focusing on the PCF and its impact on global climate to supplement the AR5 in support of treaty negotiation. © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd.
Carbon; Carbon dioxide; Global warming; Methane; Permafrost; Taxation; Thawing; Anthropogenic emissions; Climate projection; Cumulative emissions; Global climates; Global temperatures; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Temperature increase; Treaty negotiations; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; global climate; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; methane; permafrost; thawing