Dowdy D.W., Chaisson R.E., Maartens G., Corbett E.L., Dorman S.E.
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States; Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University, 1550 Orleans Street, Baltimore, MD 21231, United States; Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Faculty of Health Sciences, Observatory 7925, Cape Town, South Africa; Clinical Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, Harare WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom; Department of Medicine, University of California, 505 Parnassus Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94143, United States
Dowdy, D.W., Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States, Department of Medicine, University of California, 505 Parnassus Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94143, United States; Chaisson, R.E., Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University, 1550 Orleans Street, Baltimore, MD 21231, United States; Maartens, G., Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Faculty of Health Sciences, Observatory 7925, Cape Town, South Africa; Corbett, E.L., Clinical Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, Harare WC1E 7HT, United Kingdom; Dorman, S.E., Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University, 1550 Orleans Street, Baltimore, MD 21231, United States
South Africa has high rates of tuberculosis (TB), including multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains. Expanding access to culture and drug susceptibility testing (DST) for TB diagnosis may help control this epidemic, but the potential impact of existing and novel TB diagnostics is uncertain. By fitting to World Health Organization epidemiological estimates, we developed a compartmental difference-equation model of the TB/HIV epidemic among South African adults. Performing culture and DST in 37% of new cases and 85% of previously treated cases was projected to save 47,955 lives (17.2% reduction in TB mortality, 95% simulation interval (S.I.) 8.9-24.4%), avert 7,721 MDR-TB cases (14.1% reduction, 95% S.I. 5.3-23.8%), and prevent 46.6% of MDR-TB deaths (95% S.I. 32.6-56.0%) in South Africa over 10 years. Used alone, expanded culture and DST did not reduce XDR-TB incidence, but they enhanced the impact of transmission-reduction strategies, such as respiratory isolation. In South Africa, expanding TB culture and DST could substantially reduce TB, and particularly MDR-TB, mortality. Control of XDR-TB will require additional interventions, the impact of which may be enhanced by improved TB diagnosis. © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.
article; bacterium culture; disease transmission; drug sensitivity; epidemic; human; Human immunodeficiency virus infection; incidence; laboratory test; mathematical model; mortality; priority journal; South Africa; tuberculosis; world health organization; Disease Outbreaks; Drug Resistance, Multiple, Bacterial; Female; HIV Infections; Humans; Male; Models, Theoretical; Retrospective Studies; South Africa; Time Factors; Tuberculosis; World Health Organization