Mathematical Analysis of an HIV/AIDS Model: Impact of Educational Programs and Abstinence in Sub-Saharan Africa
Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms
Department of Applied Mathematics, Modelling Biomedical Systems Research Group, National University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box AC 939, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe; Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 OES, United Kingdom; Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019-0408, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
We formulate a deterministic HIV/AIDS model to theoretically investigate how counselling and testing coupled with the resulting decrease in sexual activity could affect the HIV epidemic in resource-limited communities. The threshold quantities are determined and stabilities analyzed. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations support the idea that increase in the number of sexually inactive HIV positive individuals who voluntarily abstain from sex has a positive impact on HIV/AIDS control. Results from this theoretical study suggest that effective counselling and testing have a great potential to partially control the epidemic (especially when HIV positive individuals either willingly withdraw from risky sexual activities or disclose their status beforehand) even in the absence of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Therefore, more needs to be done in resource-limited settings, such as sub-Saharan Africa, as far as the HIV/AIDS epidemic is concerned and a formalized information, education, and communication strategy should be given prominence in educational campaigns. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.