Modelling the impact of the 'fast track' land reform policy on Zimbabwe's maize sector
Development Southern Africa
Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa; Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), Department of Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0002, South Africa
Zimbabwe has recently gone through a widely criticised land reform process that is argued to be the cause of subdued agricultural production. This paper attempts to present a counterfactual picture of the maize market in Zimbabwe had land reform been managed appropriately. The counterfactual is developed through a partial equilibrium framework in order to quantify the impact of the land reform programme. This, to our knowledge, is the first attempt at applying a partial equilibrium framework to an analysis of the impact of land reform. The results of the post-2000 land reform policy simulation showed that actual total maize output was lower than what could have been produced if it was under a pre-2000 land reform system. The study validates the assertion that land reforms contributed to the contraction of output. These results suggest the need for a well planned and executed land reform process, which can still play an important role in output growth and food security. © 2013 Copyright Development Bank of Southern Africa.
agricultural production; land reform; maize; modeling; policy approach; reform process; Zimbabwe; Zea mays